Childcare Policy

Lessons from Quebec:

I have long appreciated Quebec's progressive childcare policies. Here is an article in the Economist that looks at what works and what doesn't. The article also discusses the costs.

I would like to discuss the cultural paradigm shift in population growth at some point in future.


Quebec's demography

The cradle's costly revenge
Jan 8th 2009 | MONTREAL
From The Economist print edition

A baby bump courtesy of the taxpayer

A French-speaking outpost in a predominantly English-speaking continent, Quebec has always been sensitive about its demographic prospects. For a long time these were encouraging. The province was legendary for its families of 15 or more children. Its population more than tripled between 1900 and 1960; its relative weight within North America also increased. The revanche du berceau (“revenge of the cradle”) dreamed of by some romantic nationalists as retaliation for the British conquest of 1759 didn’t seem so far-fetched.

Then came a sudden rebellion by Quebeckers against their Catholic heritage and church-dominated institutions. The birth rate plunged from the highest in Canada to the lowest. By the mid-1980s the fertility rate—the average number of children born to a woman—dropped to 1.36. Since a rate of 2.1 is needed to maintain a stable population, nationalists, and others too, began worrying about extinction.

This stung the provincial government into action. After much fine-tuning under several different administrations, signs have at last emerged that its efforts are bearing fruit. The first effort was a “bucks for babies” scheme. Parents were paid C$500 ($425 at today’s exchange rate) and C$1,000 for their first and second offspring respectively; subsequent children earned as much as C$8,000. But Quebeckers seemed to be unbribable.

So the government stepped in to support child care. While this can cost C$50 or more a day per child elsewhere in Canada, Quebec offers big subsidies to day nurseries and childminders provided they charge parents just C$5 a day (increased to C$7 in 2004). Despite long waiting lists for places, the province has developed a reputation as parent-friendly. Parts of Quebec bordering Ontario saw an influx of young families, even though the move involves paying much higher income tax.

Even so, the birth rate edged up only modestly. But in 2006 the Liberal provincial government of Jean Charest introduced a provision for parental leave that is more generous than anywhere else in North America. And at last the children came. The number of births in the province jumped almost 8% that year (with a particular bump in January as parents delayed conception to qualify for leave), and then a further 2.6% in 2007. Early figures for last year show the trend continuing. The fertility rate has risen to 1.66, still below the replacement level but higher than the national average.

“Baby boom is a big word. It’s more of a little bump,” cautions Céline Le Bourdais, a demographer at Montreal’s McGill University. “It will have to be seen over the long term.” From that perspective it may prove unsustainable. Both subsidised day care and the parental-leave programme, which allows parents to take almost a year off at up to three-quarters of their salary, have been popular beyond the government’s wildest projections. Their cost is way over budget. There are now 200,000 subsidised day-care places across the province, each costing about C$13,000 to the government, and with plans for 20,000 more within two years. The parental-leave programme, which was forecast to require C$1 billion annually, already costs 50% more.

At a provincial election last month Mr Charest managed to win a third term with a narrow majority (having governed with a legislative minority in his second term). With Canada’s economy sliding towards recession, the fiscal calculus is more complicated. So he may be tempted to cut spending on day care and parental leave. Both programmes help to make Quebec the most taxed and indebted place in North America. But they are popular, and many Quebeckers see them as a price worth paying to prevent a demographic death sentence for their culture.